Jones will not get to face Moore again in 2020, which is more or less why he’s in trouble. Republican incumbents simply getting overwhelmed in small states like Maine, Montana, Iowa, and Kansas by progressive grassroots fundraising, as well as potential Bloomberg money, is the nightmare scenario for team red at the moment. "Maybe McConnell and Schumer from the Senate, Pelosi and McCarthy from the House getting together. Despite a relatively low awareness among his constituents, Peters can take solace in Trump’s numbers in the state, where 55 percent disapprove of the president.

Go Ad-Free. That would appear to be the definition of insider trading and a potentially serious crime and regardless of whether she ends up being convicted of anything, it very much complicates her path to representing the Republicans in a runoff.

In response to an article I wrote nearly a year ago titled “Just How Vulnerable is Susan Collins?”, the answer now in May 2020 is “extremely”. The only change here from last time is that New Hampshire has been moved off the board.

Fast forward three months, and they landed one, and not just any one: that challenger is incumbent Governor and former Presidential candidate Steve Bullock, who is really the only possible candidate that could have put the state in play.

Tillis was an unheralded candidate in North Carolina politics before his 2014 race and hasn’t done a ton to raise his profile since then, which has left his approval ratings middling, with high amounts of “don’t know” responses in polls. Recent Ratings. Click here to see our methodology. Assuming the DSCC can get Warnock the money he needs, a Collins-Warnock runoff seems like the most likely scenario at the moment, given that Lieberman and Loeffler are both likely to receive at least 5% of the vote. Data on senator approval ratings came from data research company Morning Consult, and margins of victory in the midterm elections came from Ballotpedia, an … We have never seen this before out of any president. Back then I wrote that Montana has remained surprisingly anti-Trump for a state that is generally as red as it is at the federal level and that the race could be in play if Democrats drafted a strong challenger.

Simply put, Trump’s personal ratings reflect a Montana that resembles a swing state more than a red state.

Having represented the state of Vermont in the U.S. House from 1991-2007 and U.S. Senate from 2007-present, Sanders has the highest total approval rating of any senator at 64% total.

Here is a look at America’s largest and smallest voting districts. Again, not likely, but it remains on the radar. Jones won his three-year term in the Senate via a Special Election back in 2017 against right-wing nutjob and accused pedophile Roy Moore, one of the most incredible results in a Senate race in the last 10 years, given how red Alabama is. Click here to see the most popular members of Congress from every state.

Morning Consult's survey research solutions provide actionable intelligence needed to power your organization. These are the states where it is hardest to find full-time work. Thank you.

The combination of Trump’s poor approval ratings in the Granite State (-13% in the Civiqs tracker), incumbent Jeanne Shaheen’s popularity and fundraising strength ($11.3 M cash-on-hand), and the lack of a real viable Republican challenger mean that unless something changes with the polling, I am rating Shaheen as safe. Her problem is that not enough of them actually live in Kentucky, which is a blood red state. But if no candidate gets an outright majority, then the top two candidates, regardless of party, move on to a runoff, which will be held on January 5, 2021. Colby College put out a poll in mid-February with Democratic challenger Sara Gideon leading Collins 43% to 42%, which is alarming for the Republican because incumbents, let alone four-term incumbents, should never be in the low 40s if they want to be on track to win re-election.

Some representatives on Capitol Hill are better at that aspect of the job than others. Can he do that?

Defend democracy. This can be seen in the polls of GOP senators standing for reelection in 2020. I mean, we are teetering here. This race then moves from tossup (where it was in January) to Leaning Democratic and giving Democrats a second race where they are favored to gain a seat from the Republicans. The Morning Consult tracker lists net approval at just +6 and the CNN exit poll at the time of the 2018 Midterm had it at +3. According to Morning Consult’s latest quarterly Senator Approval Rankings based on nearly 534,000 responses from registered voters collected July 1 through Sept. 30, Republicans representing Colorado, Arizona, North Carolina, Maine and Iowa all saw their net approval — the share of voters who approve of a senator’s job performance minus the share who disapprove — decline between the second and third quarters of 2019. The survey had some major red flags for Republicans hoping to hold control of the chamber in 2020.

The 2020 polls show that it may be an uphill battle this time in a state where Republicans should not have to worry. Senator approval ratings are based on survey data collected during the third quarter of 2019 and range from 33% to 65%. Still, Trump is weak enough in Kansas to make it possible and so this race stays in Lean R until future notice. Benzinga file photo by Dustin Blitchok. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) and Cory Gardner (R-Colo.) each saw 3-point drops in net approval.

Senators and 2018 election results for House members in order to identify the least popular members of Congress. However, Trump is still vastly more popular than the former U.S. attorney who has stuck with Democrats on pivotal decisions — such as his “no” vote on the confirmation of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh — ahead of re-election in a deeply red state. In politics, it is nearly impossible to serve everyone’s best interest at all times.

Democrats have another well funded challenger in Amy McGrath to face McConnell, but it is not likely to make much of a difference. “If Trump wins four more years, even the best Democratic candidates would have a difficult time competing.”, But that cuts both ways, Donovan said, and “Democratic recruits will have to contend with the strengths and weaknesses of their own standard bearer.”. Some representatives on Capitol Hill are better at that aspect of the job than others. Unlike U.S. presidents and most state governors, congressional representatives do not have term limits. At that time, Democrats lacked a challenger with the status and money to legitimately take on first-term incumbent Republican Steve Daines. While it’s true that McConnell’s approval numbers are atrocious, they were very bad in 2014 as well and McConnell still won re-election by over 10% against a well-funded challenger. So if Bullock is a popular Governor with tons of money and the polls are either tied or have him slightly up, then why isn’t the race a tossup yet, you might ask?